Trend je tvůj přítel: základní pravidlo tradingu

8. říjen 2014

Trend = úspěch

Když to hodně zjednodušíme, trend = úspěch. Pokud se podíváte na týdenní graf a určíte trend, měli byste jej následovat i na nižších časových pásmech. Pokud obchodujete podle týdenního grafu, měl by vás zajímat především měsíční a i roční graf.

V rozjetém trendu je vždy větší pravděpodobnost jeho pokračování, než otočení trendu. Mnoho traderů, především v začátku, na trend vůbec nekouká, spekuluje na otočení i několikaměsíčních trendů a většinou neúspěšně. Ostatně modelový příklad vám přineseme během několika dní, kde rozebereme vývoj na zlatě.

Proč tradeři obchodují proti trendu?

Žádný trend není nádherná přímka, vždy dochází k menším korekcím. Navíc někdy tyto korekce vytvoří i zajímavou formaci, jednat se může například o dvojitý vrchol, engulfing, indikátory MACD, RSI a podobně. Mnozí obchodníci to vyhodnotí jako obrat trendu a obchodují na otočení. Tento přístup je extrémně riskantní a podle toho také vypadá výsledek. Jistější je hledat formace ke vstupu do trendu.

Následuj trend

Než začnu obchodovat, tak si vždy určím trend a obchoduji s ním. Trendové obchodování můžete brát jako dobrý filtr vaší obchodní strategie a využívat jen obchodů s trendem. Vaše úspěšnost by měla radikálně vzrůst.

Trend, netrend

Na závěr jen malá poznámka pro ty, kteří mají rádi risk. Lze obchodovat i proti trendu, ale pouze na silných supportech a resistancích a na malých časových pásmech. Pokud jde trh měsíc dolů, ale má narazit na silný support, určitě lze na minutovém či pětiminutovém grafu udělat obchod, který bude trvat pár vteřin, maximálně minut.

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