Obchodujeme zlato: pozor na trend

13. říjen 2014

Zlato nad hodnotou 1 900 dolarů za unci a predikce pro další růst až přes 2 000 dolarů za unci. V této situaci jsme byli před třemi lety. Zlatu věřil snad každý, pomalu se začalo spekulovat o bublině, ale mnozí investoři to brali na lehkou váhu. Ostatně zlato se stalo populární i pro domácnosti a mnozí nakoupili zlatou cihličku, obvykle jednu unci.

Zlato a trend

Mnozí z vás neustále obchodují zlato na růst. Ano, v některých případech máme silné supporty, které to umožňují, ale není jich moc. Hledat na zlatě vstup do buy pozice je spíše psychikou, která říká „to už nemůže více klesat“.

Opak je pravdou, může. Trend je velmi důležitý a spekulovat na instrumentu, který roky klesá, že poroste, to je opravdu hodně riskantní strategie. Je to sice možné, ale vyžaduje to velké znalosti, opatrnost a psychickou odolnost. Osobně bych se obchodům proti trendu na instrumentu s tak silným trendem vyhnul. K obchodu proti trendu by mě přiměly pouze silné supporty, například roční low, některé hodnoty Fibo a podobně. Pro začátek je to však příliš riskantní a bez velkých zkušeností bych se do toho nepouštěl.

Co ovlivňuje zlato

Cena zlata je udávána v dolarech. Je tak silně napojena na jeho vývoj. Zlato díky tomu velmi dobře reaguje na kvantitativní uvolňování. Stejně dobře reaguje zlato na ochotu obchodníků riskovat. Jeho cena roste především v době finančních krizí a při vysoké nedůvěře v akcie či dluhopisy. To je přesně důvod, proč se cena zlata dostala tak vysoko. Nyní se situace uklidňuje a zlato hledá skutečnou cenu. I když věříme, že ty největší pohyby má zlato už za sebou, tak rozhodně doporučujeme následovat trend.

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