Lednový efekt: čas investovat

11. leden 2016

Pokud jste se ještě neodhodlali k obchodování, tak je leden tím správným měsícem. Právě v lednu totiž většina akciových indexů roste a důvodem je tzv. lednový efekt. Co za ním stojí a lze se na něj spolehnout?

Lednový efekt: čas investovatLednový efekt: čas investovat

Co je lednový efekt

Lednový efekt je založen na jednoduché myšlence. Velké společnosti z daňových důvodů koncem roku opustí své pozice, cena klesne a v lednu následně akcie opět nakoupí. Cena má tedy tendenci růst a pokud se podíváme do historie, tak tomu tak skutečně je.

Dalším vysvětlením je i celkový optimismus a pozitivní naladění do nového roku. V tomto směru se ale bavíme spíše o psychice, a i když má na obchodování velký vliv, u lednového efektu zůstaneme primárně u vysvětlení skrz daňovou optimalizaci.

Lednový-únorový efekt

Pokud se lednový efekt naplní, tak téměř na 75 procent bude pokrčovat i v únoru. Trhy totiž zaplaví optimismus, který může zastavit jen špatná zpráva. Na lednový efekt tak nezapomínejte ani druhý měsíc v roce (i když zde už jde skutečně spíše o psychickou povahu, ale s dobrou pravděpodobností).

Jak lednový efekt obchodovat

Možnosti jsou dvě. Lze si vybrat několik akcií a investovat do nich. Vyplatí se investovat do akcií, které měly v prosinci stagnaci nebo mírný propad ceny. Utvořením balíčku několika akcií diverzifikujete riziko a především v lednu máte dobré vyhlídky.

Druhou možností je počkat na konec ledna a začátek února. Pokud se lednový efekt vyplnil, tak je velká pravděpodobnost, že bude pokračovat v únoru. Je to pro vás příležitost vstoupit do trhu, případně i dokoupit pozice.

Lednový efekt má logický základ a z tohoto důvodu jej obchoduji. Tento rok si jej můžete vyzkoušet třeba jen nanečisto a uvidíte, jaký leden přináší příležitosti.

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