Českou korunu čeká osud švýcarského franku

22. září 2015

O uvolnění švýcarského franku asi není třeba dlouze diskutovat, intradenní posílení přes 20 procent, na to asi nezapomene žádný trader a to i v případě, kdyby daný den, 15. ledna 2015, neobchodoval. Čeká podobný osud i českou korunu? S největší pravděpodobností ano.




Českou korunu čeká osud švýcarského frankuČeskou korunu čeká osud švýcarského franku

Růst devizových rezerv

Desítky nebo rovnou stovky miliard českých korun zahlcují trh a navyšují rezervy ČNB, které v současné době činí již 35 procent HDP (v případě Švýcarska to bylo těsně před uvolněním až 80 procent HDP). Česká republika má tak zatím dostatečný polštář a devizové rezervy může stále navyšovat. Pokud bychom 80 procent považovali za strop, počítat můžeme ještě s 2 000 mld. nových korun. Prostor zde tedy je, ale do nekonečna růst nemůže.

Fundamentální podpora

Švýcarsko uvalilo záporné úrokové sazby. Snažilo se investory odradit a i přesto byl kurzový pohyb přes 20 procent. Česká republika si něco podobného dovolit nemůže, sazby budou kladné, navíc koruna je celkově fundamentálně podhodnocené a rovnováhu by mohla vzhledem k euru najít až kolem 24 korun za euro.

Pokud by mělo dojít k opuštění hranice 27 korun za euro, ČNB by tak zřejmě rovnou oznámila hranici 24 – 25 korun za euro, aby trh stabilizovala a ze strany spekulantů by nedošlo k ještě razantnějšímu oslabení.

Jak obchodovat?

V současné době je možností několik. Mimo zajímavých opčních strategií na následující měsíc, či dva (kdy lze očekávat udržení hranice 27 korun za euro), lze zadat i čekající short na 26.50, s cílem 25.60. To je myslím poměrně konzervativní obchodní strategie, která by v případě prolomení hranice 27 měla být úspěšná, osobně totiž očekávám zastavení na již zmíněných 24 až 25 korunách za euro.

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