Fundamentální analýza: Když zprávy ovlivňují trading

28. únor 2013

Fundamentální analýza je hlavním obchodním nástrojem mnoha traderů. Její interpretace ovšem nemusí být jasná. Z pohledu ekonoma mohou i dobré zprávy znamenat propad. Jak se ve fundamentální analýze vyznat?




Fundamentální analýza: Když zprávy ovlivňují tradingFundamentální analýza: Když zprávy ovlivňují trading

Fundamentální analýza pracuje se zveřejněnými daty. Jedná se například o zveřejněný export, import, HDP (CPI, PPI) nezaměstnanost, rating,  úrokové sazby, prodej nemovitostí.

Tyto faktory ovlivňují především měny a s nimi i akcie dané měny. Ovšem u akcií musíte sledovat i hospodářské výsledky a celkové postavení firmy.

Jaká data využít?

Zveřejněných dat ovlivňujících trhy je ve světě denně stovky. Jako trader se zaměříte na ty nejdůležitější, které sleduje nejvíce lidí. Přehledně a velmi intuitivně můžete sledovat kalendář vyhlášení důležitých dat na forexfactory.com. Pokud se na těchto stránkách zdarma zaregistrujete, můžete si nastavit i časové pásmo.

Na výše uvedených stránkách uvidíte přehled důležitých informací. Ty jsou rozděleny dle důležitosti. Pro začátek vás bude zajímat pouze červená barva (přes filtr si můžete ponechat pouze červené události). Právě ony mají na trhy největší dopad.

U jednotlivých akcí předem vidíte minulý výsledek, očekávaný výsledek a sledujete, zda se bude konečný výsledek od očekávaného lišit. I v případě, že je velký rozdíl mezi minulým výsledkem a předpovídaným a předpovídaný výsledek se vyplní, není to signál k obchodu. Tento pohyb se již do trhů promítl. Zajímá vás tedy rozdíl mezi předpovídaným a skutečným výsledkem.

Nečekané fundamentální zprávy

Záludností obchodování jsou nečekané fundamentální zprávy. Na stránkách ForexFactory.com vidíte pouze ty očekávané. Nikdy nemůžete vědět, kdy přijde intervence, kvantitativní uvolňování nebo cokoliv dalšího a trhy výrazně posune.

Proč sledovat fundamenty?

Stránky forexfactory, případně jiné by měl sledovat i technický obchodník, jenž fundamentálně neobchoduje. Důvod je jednoduchý, u silnějších zpráv trhy 5-10 minut před a 15-30 minut po vyhlášení „blázní.“ V takový okamžik je trh nevyzpytatelný a mnoha traderů neobchoduje.

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