Aktuální trendy: Jak se trhy chovají

16. duben 2014

Při obchodování vás může vždy něco překvapit. Dnes vám ukážeme jednoduchou analýzu trhů a to včetně predikce. Tato strategie je základem každého obchodníka, navíc ji zvládne skutečně každý.

Základní přehled

Je jedno, zda jste byli posledních 14 dní na dovolené nebo sledujete trhy každý den, základní přehled musíte mít za každé situace. Stačí vědět, kde se zrovna nachází cena v dlouhodobém horizontu, grafy tedy přepínáme na D (denní graf), v případě dlouhodobých obchodů na týden či měsíc a analyzujeme.

Osobně preferuji day trading a je výjimečně držím pozici několik dní. Mě osobně bude stačit denní graf. Pokud držíte pozici dny až týdny, přepínáte na týdenní, v případě dlouhodobějších obchodů až na měsíční graf.

EURUSD

Na denním grafu vidím, že jsme měli pohyb směrem nahoru, který je nyní mírně korigován. Zároveň se nacházíme na 50 moving avarage. Na první pohled se může zdát, že to nepřináší téměř žádnou informaci, protože nemůžeme říci, zda EURUSD bude oslabovat nebo posilovat. Na druhou stranu víme, že čekáme spíše růst, který je nyní mírně korigován. Pokud však pokoříme moving avarage, tedy klouzavý průměr, lze aspoň krátkodobě spekulovat na pokles.

Jak vidíte, již z jednoduché analýzy si lze vytvořit scénáře, a když se trh pohne, máte jasno.

GBPUSD

Na denním grafu je vidět rostoucí trend. Lze tedy vyhledávat obchody do trendu. Na druhou stranu si musíme dávat pozor na již trojitý vrchol, který bude silnou resistancí a téměř určitě se na něm trh aspoň zastaví. Na nižším časovém pásmu bych na této hodnotě spekuloval krátkodobě na short pozici, tedy oslabení. Naopak po prolomení očekáváme další růst.

Důležité je obchodovat s trendem. Trend lze poměrně snadno vyčíst z dlouhodobého grafu. I když je graf na první pohled nečitelný a nic neříkající, vytvoříte si scénáře a připravíte se na budoucí situaci.

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