Zlato opět na minimech: Konec zlaté éry?

23. listopad 2013

Od zlata se očekává konstantní růst. Zlaté rezervy by měly chránit úspory a být bezpečným přístavem. V posledních měsících je tomu právě naopak a zlato si opět šahá na minima, tentokrát na čtyřměsíční. Jaký je předpokládaný vývoj?




Zlato opět na minimech: Konec zlaté éry?Zlato opět na minimech: Konec zlaté éry?

Cena zlata
Zlato: pokles nebo růst?

Cena zlata

Mnozí obchodníci si pamatují časy, kdy experti očekávali cenu zlata až nad 2 000 dolarů za trojskou unci a výhled byl velmi optimistický. Cena zlata skutečně rostla, ale ještě rychleji klesala. Vystřízlivění z přehnané optimistu zaskočilo téměř každého obchodníka.

Současná cena zlata se pohybuje kolem 1 250 dolarů za trojskou unci. Na tuto cenu se dostalo zlato po celkem čtyřech měsících a jedná se tedy o čtyřměsíční minimum. Minimálně krátkodobě můžeme očekávat růst, ovšem pro lepší predikci je vhodné počkat na signál vývoje.

Zlato: pokles nebo růst?

V současné době se pohybujeme na již zmíněném čtyřměsíčním minimu. Na těchto hodnotách často dochází k výrazným pohybům. Možnosti jsou samozřejmě pouze dvě, korekce, tedy růst nebo pokračování v oslabování zlata.

V současné době je nejrozumnější počkat na prvotní signál. Pokud by zlato kleslo pod 1 236 dolarů za jednu trojskou unci, můžeme pokračovat s dalším oslabováním. Naopak při růstu nad 1 251 dolarů za trojskou unci můžeme očekávat posílení zlata.

Hodnoty jsou vypočítány na základě supportů a resistencí. Sami si je na grafu můžete ověřit. Horní hranici 1 251 jsme určili pomocí obchodní strategie 1-2-3 gap, kdy 1 251 dolarů znamená vstup do dlouhé pozice – nákup s očekávanou cenou 1 269 dolarů za trojskou unci.

I přes tyto výkyvy platí, že zlato je stále považováno za dobrou investici v dlouhodobém horizontu (5 a více let). Pokud chcete do zlata investovat dlouhodobě, můžete zvolit i fyzické zlaté slitky.

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