Vývoj ceny zlata v roce 2013: Zlato uzavírá nejhorší rok

15. prosinec 2013

Zlato bylo v roce 2013 v klesajícím trendu a v průběhu roku odepsalo téměř jednu třetinu celkové ceny. Jeden z nejhorších roků pro zlato se uzavírá a nabízí se otázka, co bude se zlatem dále. Vyplatí se do něj investovat v roce 2014?




Vývoj ceny zlata v roce 2013: Zlato uzavírá nejhorší rokVývoj ceny zlata v roce 2013: Zlato uzavírá nejhorší rok

2013 a krátká pozice

Pokud jste začátkem roku 2013 vstoupili do krátké pozice na zlatě, zřejmě je pro vás rok 2013 úspěšný. Obzvláště, pokud se vám podařilo ukončit obchod koncem června, kdy zlato dosáhlo na tříletá minima a dostalo se pod cenu 1 200 dolarů za unci. Od července jsme se sice dočkali růstu a to celých 250 dolarů, ale nyní, ke konci roku zlato opět ztrácí. Ze současných 1 238 dolarů za unci již zlato příliš nevymyslí a téměř s jistotou můžeme říci, že se rok 2013 přidá k roku 1981 a 1997, tedy k nejhoršímu období zlata.

Proč cena zlata klesla?

Zlato ztratilo hned z několika důvodů. Jeho cena již byla příliš vysoká a ovládali ji z velké části i emoce, ne racionální poptávka. Druhým vysvětlením je změna investičních preferencí a to ze zlata, z bezpečného přístavu na rizikové, ale výnosnější akcie. Do třetice se k tomu připojila nízká inflace, jenž zlatu nesvědčí.

Současně s politickými zprávami to znamenalo jedině, katastrofu pro zlato. Ve zlatu zůstali jen dlouhodobí investoři.

Vývoj ceny zlata

Zlato v následujících měsících bude stagnovat, aspoň tak to čekají analytici a z osobního pohledu bych se k tomuto názoru přikláněl. Pokud růst, tak v druhé polovině nebo až na konci roku 2014. To ovšem neznamená, že byste zlato měli vyřadit ze svého repertoáru. Zlato je stále vhodné ke krátkodobým investicím jako je například obchodování gapů.

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