Výkyv na EUR/USD: Fed bude u sazeb trpělivý

19. březen 2015

Nejen tradeři netrpělivě čekali na zasedání Fedu. Ve hře bylo i zvyšování sazeb, které by znamenalo růst americké ekonomiky. Ostatně od roku 2006 by to bylo první zvýšení sazeb. To se ale nepotvrdilo a zároveň ani nevyvrátio. Jaká je aktuální situace?




Výkyv na EUR/USD: Fed bude u sazeb trpělivýVýkyv na EUR/USD: Fed bude u sazeb trpělivý

Fed a sazby

Od roku 2006 Fed úrokové sazby neustále snižuje. Je to jeden ze způsobů, jak podporovat ekonomiku. Bohužel sazby se dostávají na minimum a není je kam snižovat. Centrální banky tak musely přejít k jiné možnosti. Poprvé od roku 2006 Fed zvažuje zvýšení těchto sazeb, což by znamenalo zlepšení ekonomické situace.

Fed a 18. 3. 2015

Zasedání Fedu je na měnovém páru EURUSD významně vidět 18. 3. 2015. Fed sice nepotvrdil zvýšení sazeb, ale bylo řečeno, že bude trpělivý. Tím pádem nelze očekávat brzké zvýšení, které se předpokládalo již v červnu. Na druhou stranu ani Fed zvýšení sazeb neodmítnul a spekulace o jejich zvýšení se posunuly na podzim.

Vývoj EURUSD

Dolar daným výrokem trochu ztratil. Ekonomika totiž neroste, jak by se očekávalo. Na druhou stranu jsme se již přiblížili k hranici 1:1 a určitá korekce je jistě na místě. Dolaru navíc bude pomáhat fakt, že EU nechce Řecko „odstřihnout“ a bude mu dále pomáhat. To znamená půjčky, ústupky a celkově negativní vliv na EUR. To ovšem není jediný nešvar eura a dolar má tak nakročeno k dalšímu posilování, aspoň podle analýzy. Dle zkušenosti očekávám v následujících dnech a týdnech pohyb do strany, tedy vyčkávání na nový trend.

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