Euro chytá druhý dech: vývoj kurzu eurusd

16. srpen 2015

Euro bylo v posledních týdnech pod silným tlakem. Několikrát jsme dokonce společnou evropskou měnu chválili za její stabilitu. Vše ovšem hovořilo proti euru a tak jsme byli svědkem jeho pozvolného oslabování. V posledním týdnu ovšem vidíme první příznaky možného obratu. Je zde opět éra eura?




Euro chytá druhý dech: vývoj kurzu eurusdEuro chytá druhý dech: vývoj kurzu eurusd

Euro a situace v eurozóně

Situace v eurozóně rozhodně nebyla pro euro oporou. ECB schválila kvantitativní uvolňování. Nepřesně si pod tímto pojmem představuje mnoho lidí tištění peněz. Do ekonomiky skutečně proudí další peníze, kdy centrální banka nakupuje cenné papíry, které jsou bohužel někdy již téměř bezcenné, ale peníze si jen tak netiskne. Ovšem ať už koukáme na kvantitativní uvolňování jako na tištění nových peněz nebo skupování toxických cenných papírů, rozhodně to euro nepodpoří.

Společné evropské měně nepomohla ani celková situace v eurozóně. Jedná se především o Řecko, další půjčky a další problémy. Zapomenout nesmíme ani na problém s imigranty.

Vývoj na forexu

V posledním týdnu jsme mohli vidět první příznaky posílení eura a to nejenom na měnovém páru eurusd. Uvědomit si musíme i celkovou situaci ve světě. Čínská ekonomika oslabuje, Spojené státy nemohou utáhnout měnovou politiku kvůli nízké ceně ropy, o které jsme vás informovali. Světové trhy jsou tak v bludném kruhu a euro je aktuálním vítězem, vydrží mu to?

Vývoj pro euro

Prvním důkazem jednoznačně pro euro je růst jádrové inflace (bez energií a potravin). Ta roste dokonce poprvé po čtyřech letech. Velmi pozitivní jsou také předstihové indexy aktivity. PMI se drží hranice 54 bodů a pro eurozónu by to mohlo znamenat 2% ekonomický růst. Vývoj za poslední týden má tedy i fundamentální základ a vzhledem k dění na světových trzích by mohl dále pokračovat.

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