Dieselgate a akcie Volkswagenu: koupit nebo prodat?

10. říjen 2015

Asi nikdo nepřehlédl současnou kauzu koncernu Volkswagen. I když na samotné vozy nemá dieselgate žádný dopad a ve skutečnosti nijak neovlivňuje běžné chování automobilu, pro Volkswagen to bude drahý špás. Pokuty regulatorních úřadů a také hromadné žaloby v USA vyjdou celý koncern na několik miliard dolarů.




Dieselgate a akcie Volkswagenu: koupit nebo prodat?Dieselgate a akcie Volkswagenu: koupit nebo prodat?

Propad akcií VW

Akcie až na 250 eurech za akcii. To byla situace ještě před půl rokem. Následovala podezření o falšování emisí, zveřejnění o prošetřování Volkswagenu a možných podvodech, akcie padaly. Po potvrzení jsme sledovali první odhady, kolika vozů se škoda asi týká. Každým dnem se čísla zvyšovala a akcie byly najednou pod 100 eury za kus. V té době se hovořilo i o možném prodeji některé z automobilek, které VW vlastní, vyloučit nešlo ani prodej tuzemské Škoda Auto.

Současná situace

Nic není tak horké, jak se na první pohled zdá. To by asi nejlépe vystihovalo celou situaci. I když je dieselgate velkým problémem a VW zaplatí skutečně několik miliard dolarů na nápravu, zdá se, že to koncern ustojí. V týdnu se za VW dokonce postavila i německá vláda. Je potřeba si uvědomit, že pro Volkswagen pracuje po celém světe více než 600 000 přímých pracovníků. VW je tak pro mnohé politiky too big to fail a rozhodně může počítat s podporou.

Současné odhady škody jsou navíc trochu mírnější, než ty prvotní a i přes velkou finanční ztrátu to VW zřejmě nijak výrazně neomezí.

Aktuálně se navíc hovoří i o dalších automobilkách, které zřejmě také emise upravují. Podle prvotních testů mají při reálném provozu vyšší emise vozy Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Mazda a Mitsubishi.

Akcie VW koupit nebo prodat

Aktuálně spekuluji na růst akcií VW. Velikost automobilky, podpora německé vlády a finanční zdroje jsou pro Volkswagen jasnou výhodou. Nevěřím, že by celý koncern ukončil výrobu a šel do prodeje. Dieselgate tak považuji za skvělou možnost, jak nakoupit akcie po skandálu, který zřejmě nebude ojedinělý a za rok nebo za dva se na něj zapomene. Akcie VW osobně nakupuji, ale jako dlouhodobou investici.

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